2020 election: Presidential nomination projections

Neil Murphy, Opinion Editor

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Who’s winning the democratic & republican nomination in 2019?

The road to the 2020 election is starting to really kick off into full effect. It just seemed like yesterday when Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and the other 23 candidates announced their bid to run for the democratic party’s presidential nomination.

On the other side of the political spectrum, there are actually two candidates for the republican party: President Donald J. Trump and former Governor of Massachusetts Bill Weld. The stakes are high for Governor Bill Weld and the P.O.T.U.S.

The candidates for 2020 will be very cutthroat and will try to stand out amongst themselves any way possible. Why? This election could end up being a realignment election. That fact alone makes this all the more intense. To each party, everything is on the line.

Firstly, I would like to discuss the republican candidates for the presidency. As mentioned before, we have the Governor Bill Weld competing against the sitting president, Donald Trump.

The former governor does face numerous challenges. The first major challenge is public recognition. Nobody really knows Weld at all.

A second challenge that Weld faces is airtime. Compared to Trump, Weld does not have as much exposure through the media. Weld may go on the news and have a twitter, but he doesn’t get covered as much. Why is that? Because he isn’t controversial like his opponent.

A third challenge that weld faces is the deep-rooted loyalty that the republican party has towards the president. No matter how many times the president has insulted a fellow party member, they will not budge on their support for the president.

These individuals would rather swallow their own pride rather than divide the party. If that alone cannot sway republicans to shift sides on Trump, sadly they likely wouldn’t do the same for Governor Weld.

There are so many difficulties for the former governor this election. It is very likely that Trump will win the nomination for the republican party which may not surprise certain people.

Now it is time for one of the biggest points of contention all year. What I am referring to is a single question, “Which of the 25 democratic candidates will receive the party nomination?”

Well I can tell you right now for certain, I don’t have a definitive answer, but only a guess. Surprise! You came to an opinion article after all, right?

To speed up the process I am only going to be talking about 6 candidates. In my opinion, those six are the frontrunners of the entire party. That means they have the highest chance of getting the nomination. To talk about 25 candidates in a half page article is completely Ludacris. However, give me a full newspaper and I’ll get the ball rolling fast.

The candidates that I am going to talk about are Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker. While others may have a chance to still move up the ranks, these individuals have been the most consistent in the polls regarding public opinion.

We can classify these 6 candidates into quick categories: moderates and progressives. The progressive candidates would be Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders. The moderate candidates would be Cory Booker, Joe Biden as well as Pete Buttigieg.

Depending on your perception on what the “ideal candidate is” this might help you understand a bit more. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have roughly the same ideas and views while Kamala is dipping more and more into progressivism. She does have a good track record of fighting societal injustices.

However, on the moderate side, you have similar ideas between the three, but they are still opposites in a lot of ways. To cut down on time, we won’t dive into these points. We’ve really only seen your typical moderate republicans and democrats for most of our history with some exceptions. Maybe one of the moderates will end up taking the title?

I personally believe that America isn’t ready for a “progressive president”. Don’t get me wrong, progressivism isn’t a bad thing at all. Just hear me out on this one.

There are tons of people today who still live in a more “relaxed McCarthyism” like trance. You hear all the time, “He/She is a socialist. They’re just like Stalin.” and so many more comments like that from all sides of the spectrum. If that’s the case even now, which it is, Bernie and Warren will not get the nomination. That leaves four candidates left.

Moderates are usually the safest bet because they tend to work so much better with the other side compared to candidates that are farther down the political spectrum you go. However, at this rate, they practically practice and preach the same thing.. So in my opinion, it’ll all come down to popularity/face value.

First, we can look at Cory Booker. From what I can tell, Cory Booker really got prominent during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings. This can give him a true advantage over most of the candidates running for president but where will he stand in relation to the main 5? Not very high if you ask me.

Second, we can look at Pete Buttigieg. He has gotten more and more popular among younger voters. He’s a millennial, he’s charismatic, smart, a veteran, and can speak multiple languages. What doesn’t he have? In my opinion, he doesn’t have the same standing that the other players have. Think about it. Buttigieg hasn’t been a politician for as long as the others have. A small track record doesn’t hold up as well to big names.

Lastly, we can look at Joe Biden. He has to be the most popular candidate among the entire party. He was loved as Vice President, he’s known as “Uncle Joe”, etc. Most people think he’s a genuine guy who really cares, while others think he’s not going to make the best president.

It’s honestly going to come down to the wire: Kamala vs. Joe. In the end, I believe the democratic party will choose a moderate over a progressive, however the progressives will put up a really good fight. I believe with this information, round two will be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

 

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