So let’s just start off by facing the fact that my New Hampshire predictions were way off. Donald Trump destroyed it by a huge margin, Kasich pulled a surprise second place and Hilary lost by more than 20 percent, but remains far ahead in the delegate count.
Be that as it may, they were just predictions and I am new to this, so please bear with me. Having explained myself enough, we move on to the ﬁrst large group of states in the mad dash for the delegates: Super Tuesday.
For Hillary Clinton, this is a major moment in the campaign. If she loses just a few of the states in her “Southern Firewall” — like Texas, Colorado, Georgia and Virginia — we may see a very contentious ﬁght for the Democratic nominee begin, and her “guaranteed” nominee position evaporate before our eyes.
With the Republicans, we see much less contention, and because of this, I see Donald Trump and Ted Cruz splitting up the March 1 states, perhaps with a minor win for Jeb Bush** or Marco Rubio here and there.
Despite his upset in New Hampshire, Katich put all his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and is essentially a solo act in the Deep South. Cruz may ﬂ ounder in places where he was assumed to do well.
Rubio has been widely labeled as an “establishment robot” since his debate performance in New Hampshire in early February, and has lost a lot of his steam.
Trump has remained practically unscathed in the primaries thus far, but I will mention that he has gotten m u c h quieter himself in recent weeks.
With the Democrats, I don’t see this “Crisis of Clinton” I mentioned above, actually occurring — despite what many Bernie Sanders’ supporters may be wishing.
She has built a strong defense in the Southern states throughout this whole campaign. Bernie’s going to win Vermont, but could also take states like Minnesota, Massachusetts and possibly Colorado if he does well in Nevada’s Caucus.
Other than that, I see Hillary easily taking most of the southern states, and she has a pretty good chance in the states aforementioned that may favor Bernie.
I’ll be back in mid-March with another prediction, and possibly some wrapping up, as some candidates may falter and suspend campaigns. Whom may they be? We shall see soon.
**Editor’s note: Jeb Bush suspended his campaign after this column was written.